Inspired by Ehan Mollick’s Substack post: Confronting Impossible Futures

In the rapidly evolving world of AI, strategizing for future scenarios is crucial, especially when managing and staffing a team of Sales Engineers (SEs) in enterprise software sales. Inspired by the concept of Wins Above Replacement (WAR) from baseball, we explore how AI, as the replacement player, can impact our strategy across four potential AI futures.

Key STEEP Forces to Consider

  1. Social: Changes in team dynamics, customer interactions, and societal acceptance of AI.
  2. Technological: AI advancements, integration with sales processes, and impact on productivity.
  3. Economic: Cost implications, ROI of AI vs. human SEs, and economic conditions affecting enterprise software sales.
  4. Environmental: Digital transformation trends and sustainability of AI technologies.
  5. Political: Regulations on AI, data privacy laws, and global market conditions.

Four Future Scenarios

1. As Good as It Gets

Scenario Description: AI capabilities plateau. Current AI tools are as advanced as they will ever be, with minimal future improvements.

Implications for Strategy:

  • AI Role: AI tools provide standard support functions like data analysis, CRM management, and basic customer interactions.
  • Human SE Value: Human SEs are essential for complex problem-solving, personalized customer engagements, and building relationships.
  • Strategy:
    • Focus on hiring SEs with strong interpersonal skills and domain expertise.
    • Use AI for routine tasks, freeing up SEs for higher-value activities.
    • Continuous training for SEs to leverage AI tools effectively.

Indicators:

  • Stable performance of AI tools without significant updates.
  • Customer preference for human interaction in complex sales.

2. Slow Growth

Scenario Description: AI improves incrementally, with steady but moderate advancements over time.

Implications for Strategy:

  • AI Role: Enhanced support with better data insights, predictive analytics, and semi-automated customer interactions.
  • Human SE Value: SEs remain critical for nuanced and strategic customer engagements but can rely more on AI for decision support.
  • Strategy:
    • Invest in upskilling SEs to use advanced AI tools.
    • Implement AI to augment decision-making and customer interaction.
    • Balance AI automation with human touch to maintain customer trust.

Indicators:

  • Gradual improvement in AI capabilities and tools.
  • Increasing but controlled reliance on AI in sales processes.

3. Exponential Growth

Scenario Description: AI capabilities grow exponentially, dramatically transforming the sales landscape.

Implications for Strategy:

  • AI Role: Highly advanced AI capable of handling complex customer queries, personalized recommendations, and automated sales processes.
  • Human SE Value: SEs focus on strategic accounts, innovation, and managing AI systems. AI handles a significant portion of routine sales work.
  • Strategy:
    • Shift towards a smaller, highly skilled SE team focused on strategic tasks.
    • Leverage AI for high-volume, transactional sales.
    • Develop expertise in managing and integrating AI systems.

Indicators:

  • Rapid advancements in AI technology and applications.
  • Significant reduction in routine tasks handled by human SEs.

4. AGI (Artificial General Intelligence)

Scenario Description: AGI reaches and surpasses human-level intelligence, transforming every aspect of work and society.

Implications for Strategy:

  • AI Role: AGI takes over most roles traditionally performed by humans, including strategic decision-making and complex customer interactions.
  • Human SE Value: Humans oversee AGI systems, focus on ethical considerations, and handle high-stakes, relationship-based engagements.
  • Strategy:
    • Transition to a model where humans manage and collaborate with AGI.
    • Prioritize ethical use of AGI and maintain human oversight.
    • Foster relationships and trust-building as key human roles.

Indicators:

  • Emergence of AGI with capabilities matching or exceeding human intelligence.
  • Widespread integration of AGI in business processes.

Summary Table

Scenario AI Role Human SE Value Strategy
As Good as It Gets Basic support functions Essential for complex tasks and relationships Hire skilled SEs, use AI for routine tasks, continuous training
Slow Growth Enhanced support with better insights Critical for nuanced engagements Upskill SEs, balance AI and human touch, implement AI decision support
Exponential Growth Advanced AI handling complex tasks Focus on strategic accounts, AI management Smaller skilled SE team, leverage AI for transactional sales, integrate AI systems
AGI Takes over most human roles Oversee AGI, ethical considerations Manage and collaborate with AGI, prioritize ethical use, focus on trust-building

Story Titles and Vignettes

  1. As Good as It Gets: “Human Touch in the Age of Steady AI”
    • Vignette: Sarah, a seasoned Sales Engineer, relies on AI to handle data entry and generate reports, allowing her to focus on building deep client relationships and solving complex problems that AI can’t address.
  2. Slow Growth: “The Balanced Dance of Humans and AI”
    • Vignette: Mark, a Sales Engineer, uses AI-driven insights to tailor his sales pitches and predict customer needs, while still providing the personal touch that wins over major clients.
  3. Exponential Growth: “Riding the AI Wave”
    • Vignette: Lisa, one of the few remaining Sales Engineers, specializes in strategic accounts, relying on advanced AI to manage day-to-day interactions and identify new opportunities, enabling her to drive significant business growth.
  4. AGI: “Guardians of the AGI Frontier”
    • Vignette: Alex, a Sales Engineer turned AI ethicist, ensures the ethical use of AGI in sales processes while maintaining human oversight and fostering trust with clients in an era dominated by superintelligent machines.

These scenarios help visualize how your strategy could evolve and what actions you might need to take as AI capabilities develop.